Facing the facts: immigration and crime statistics

It’s time someone refuted the misleading slogan claiming that “violent crime plummeted” as a result of the immigration culture war that took place in Prince William County, Virginia during the 2007 and 2008.

The fact is the crime rate went up slightly that year, even though it had been falling for 15 years before the controversy began.   Crime statistics provide an incomplete picture of public safety (they reflect only those crimes that are reported, for instance, even though unreported crimes impact public safety just as much if not more), but let’s walk through the numbers and try to make some sense of them.

1st, please download the Prince William County Police Department’s 2008 and 2009 Crimes Statistics reports.

• 2008 Crime Statistics
• 2009 Crime Statistics

2nd, after taking a look at the reports, see if you share my analysis:

• The 2008 crime report, which reflects the year of Prince William County’s political and racial unrest, shows that the OVERALL crime rate INCREASED, with murder, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft all going up (p. 3, 2008 official crime report).
• The 2008 official crime report shows that “violent crime” decreased by 21.8% (p. 3, 2008 report).  However, this can almost entirely attributed to a 36.5% drop in a single category: “aggravated assault.”
• Why was “aggravated assault” reporting so much lower during a year when reported crimes in most other categories went up?  Prince William County Police Chief Charlie Deane, and other law enforcement leaders with knowledge in this field, theorize that the decrease in “aggravated assault” reporting had a lot to do with the success of the county’s Robbery Suppression Initiative which was put in place a few years before the controversy began.  It should be noted, also, that law enforcement experts believe that immigrants and undocumented immigrants in the United States are more likely to be victims than perpetrators when it comes to robbery and other serious crimes.  This is likely because criminals know that immigrants are vulnerable, that they often carry cash, and, that they are less likely to report crimes than the average person.  Meanwhile, immigrants and especially undocumented immigrants go to great lengths to abide by the law and avoid encounters with the authorities.
• Oddly enough, “domestic violence” reporting fell from 1,358 to 1,256 in 2008, despite the fact that the population increased by more than 7,000 (p. 4, 2008 report).  This suggests there may have been a trust issue that year, with residents less likely to report crimes due to a widespread perception that the police may not be administering the law fairly.  Another indication of a trust issue can be found on page 26 of the Prince William County Citizen Satisfaction Survey where you will see significant decrease in trust among African Americans and Latinos with regard to law enforcement, in the wake of our county’s immigration controversy.  Thus, OVERALL crime went up during a year when there may have been under-reporting.

• Crime rates HAD BEEN GOING DOWN during the past 15 years when the county’s immigrant population had been growing (p. 8, 2008 report).  In 2007, when hysteria was being fomented over a supposed crime wave sweeping the county, crime was actually at an all time low.  This makes the subsequent increase in our crime rate all the more significant.  If crime statistics — that is, those crimes that are actually reported — are an accurate barometer of public safety, it would seem that generating mistrust between the community and law enforcement hurts public safety, rather than helping it.  In order to keep a community safe, law enforcement needs to have a relationship of trust and open communication with the people they protect and serve — that would include everyone, regardless of race, religion, or sexual orientation.
• In 2009, after the repeal of the “Probable Cause Mandate” and the end of the controversy, the African American and Latino opinions of law enforcement bounced back to previous levels — see page 26 of the Prince William County Citizen Satisfaction Survey.  This suggests that trust and communication between communities of color and law enforcement improved.  Not surprisingly, the crime rate resumed its downward trend, setting a new record low (page 7 of the 2009 crime report).

Finally, on a personal note, I want to share that I was prompted to write this blog when a Latino college student asked me if recent claims being made by my county chairman, Corey Stewart, were true.  I sensed that he feared they might be true, and I wondered how this fear might affect him.  When a politician repeatedly claims that immigrants left and crime went down, the implication, of course, is that immigrants and undocumented immigrants are more likely to commit crimes than native born Americans (statistics indicate the opposite is true).  And, to be perfectly honest, the implication is that Latinos are more likely to commit crimes, because the focus of the racial anxiety that fuels the anti-immigrant movement is almost entirely focused on Latinos.   In my view, this is irresponsible thing to say.  Directly or indirectly, for political gain, or just to save face, making generalizations such as these based on a selective misreading of crime statistics is not only irresponsible, it’s immoral.   It does more than mislead the public, it also creates unnecessary stereotypes and divisions, and causes young people who are part of the targeted group to question their sense of pride in their identity, and their right to consider themselves a part of American society — a right we all share equally regardless of race, religion, or sexual orientation.

Video featuring Annabel Park, addresses crime statistics and the need to “look at the facts first.”